Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using extreme learning machines: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential
 
research article

Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using extreme learning machines: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential

Amato, Federico  
•
Guignard, Fabian
•
Walch, Alina  
Show more
July 12, 2022
Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment

With wind power providing an increasing amount of electricity worldwide, the quantification of its spatio-temporal variations and the related uncertainty is crucial for energy planners and policy-makers. Here, we propose a methodological framework which (1) uses machine learning to reconstruct a spatio-temporal field of wind speed on a regular grid from spatially irregularly distributed measurements and (2) transforms the wind speed to wind power estimates. Estimates of both model and prediction uncertainties, and of their propagation after transforming wind speed to power, are provided without any assumptions on data distributions. The methodology is applied to study hourly wind power potential on a grid of 250 x 250 m(2) for turbines of 100 m hub height in Switzerland, generating the first dataset of its type for the country. We show that the average annual power generation per turbine is 4.4 GWh. Results suggest that around 12,000 wind turbines could be installed on all 19,617 km(2) of available area in Switzerland resulting in a maximum technical wind potential of 53 TWh. To achieve the Swiss expansion goals of wind power for 2050, around 1000 turbines would be sufficient, corresponding to only 8% of the maximum estimated potential.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

s00477-022-02219-w.pdf

Type

Publisher's Version

Version

http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

Access type

openaccess

License Condition

CC BY

Size

3.94 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

b97f90fb5d277bfe53fc7e08e54a1247

Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés