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  4. Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using extreme learning machines: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential
 
research article

Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using extreme learning machines: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential

Amato, Federico  
•
Guignard, Fabian
•
Walch, Alina  
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July 12, 2022
Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment

With wind power providing an increasing amount of electricity worldwide, the quantification of its spatio-temporal variations and the related uncertainty is crucial for energy planners and policy-makers. Here, we propose a methodological framework which (1) uses machine learning to reconstruct a spatio-temporal field of wind speed on a regular grid from spatially irregularly distributed measurements and (2) transforms the wind speed to wind power estimates. Estimates of both model and prediction uncertainties, and of their propagation after transforming wind speed to power, are provided without any assumptions on data distributions. The methodology is applied to study hourly wind power potential on a grid of 250 x 250 m(2) for turbines of 100 m hub height in Switzerland, generating the first dataset of its type for the country. We show that the average annual power generation per turbine is 4.4 GWh. Results suggest that around 12,000 wind turbines could be installed on all 19,617 km(2) of available area in Switzerland resulting in a maximum technical wind potential of 53 TWh. To achieve the Swiss expansion goals of wind power for 2050, around 1000 turbines would be sufficient, corresponding to only 8% of the maximum estimated potential.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1007/s00477-022-02219-w
Web of Science ID

WOS:000823353300001

Author(s)
Amato, Federico  
Guignard, Fabian
Walch, Alina  
Mohajeri, Nahid
Scartezzini, Jean-Louis  
Kanevski, Mikhail
Date Issued

2022-07-12

Publisher

SPRINGER

Published in
Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment
Volume

36

Start page

2049

End page

2069

Subjects

Engineering, Environmental

•

Engineering, Civil

•

Environmental Sciences

•

Statistics & Probability

•

Water Resources

•

Engineering

•

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

•

Mathematics

•

renewable energy

•

machine learning

•

extreme learning machine

•

uncertainty quantification

•

big data mining

•

covariance functions

•

time-series

•

energy

•

regression

•

confidence

•

land

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

Available on Infoscience
August 1, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/189684
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