Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Conferences, Workshops, Symposiums, and Seminars
  4. Launch Hard or Go Home! Predicting the Success of Kickstarter Campaigns
 
conference paper

Launch Hard or Go Home! Predicting the Success of Kickstarter Campaigns

Etter, Vincent  
•
Grossglauser, Matthias  
•
Thiran, Patrick  
2013
Proceedings of the first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)
The first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)

Crowdfunding websites such as Kickstarter are becoming increasingly popular, allowing project creators to raise hundreds of millions of dollars every year. However, only one out of two Kickstarter campaigns reaches its funding goal and is successful. It is therefore of prime importance, both for project creators and backers, to be able to know which campaigns are likely to succeed. We propose a method for predicting the success of Kickstarter campaigns by using both direct information and social features. We introduce a first set of predictors that uses the time series of money pledges to classify campaigns as probable success or failure and a second set that uses information gathered from tweets and Kickstarter's projects/backers graph. We show that even though the predictors that are based solely on the amount of money pledged reach a high accuracy, combining them with predictors using social features enables us to improve the performance significantly. In particular, only 4 hours after the launch of a campaign, the combined predictor reaches an accuracy of more than 76% (a relative improvement of 4%).

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

etter2013cosn.pdf

Type

Preprint

Version

http://purl.org/coar/version/c_71e4c1898caa6e32

Access type

openaccess

Size

328.61 KB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

3f9a39737b2170256d574684b479493f

Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés