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  4. Launch Hard or Go Home! Predicting the Success of Kickstarter Campaigns
 
conference paper

Launch Hard or Go Home! Predicting the Success of Kickstarter Campaigns

Etter, Vincent  
•
Grossglauser, Matthias  
•
Thiran, Patrick  
2013
Proceedings of the first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)
The first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)

Crowdfunding websites such as Kickstarter are becoming increasingly popular, allowing project creators to raise hundreds of millions of dollars every year. However, only one out of two Kickstarter campaigns reaches its funding goal and is successful. It is therefore of prime importance, both for project creators and backers, to be able to know which campaigns are likely to succeed. We propose a method for predicting the success of Kickstarter campaigns by using both direct information and social features. We introduce a first set of predictors that uses the time series of money pledges to classify campaigns as probable success or failure and a second set that uses information gathered from tweets and Kickstarter's projects/backers graph. We show that even though the predictors that are based solely on the amount of money pledged reach a high accuracy, combining them with predictors using social features enables us to improve the performance significantly. In particular, only 4 hours after the launch of a campaign, the combined predictor reaches an accuracy of more than 76% (a relative improvement of 4%).

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1145/2512938.2512957
Author(s)
Etter, Vincent  
Grossglauser, Matthias  
Thiran, Patrick  
Date Issued

2013

Publisher

ACM

Published in
Proceedings of the first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)
Start page

177

End page

182

Subjects

Crowdfunding

•

Kickstarter

•

time-series classification

•

success prediction

•

social features

•

Twitter

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
INDY2  
INDY1  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
The first ACM conference on Online Social Networks (COSN'13)

Boston, Massachusetts, USA

October 7-8, 2013

Available on Infoscience
October 1, 2013
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/96015
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