Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Expert Judgements in Risk Analysis: a Strategy to Overcome Uncertainities
 
research article

Expert Judgements in Risk Analysis: a Strategy to Overcome Uncertainities

Plüss, David Nicolas  
•
Groso, Amela  
•
Meyer, Thierry  
2013
Chemical Engineering Transactions

There is a need for a risk analysis technique specific for academic research laboratories. Since accurate accident data, normally required for quantitative risk analysis, are not available for this environment, expert judgements are often used to describe risks. However, these judgements are afflicted with linguistic, lexical or informal uncertainties. As a consequence, analyses made by different experts can lead to different results, which make risks incomparable. The purpose of this work is to analyse the effect of these uncertainties and to test strategies to improve the accuracy of the risk estimation based on expert judgements. Different calculation methods were used to compare the obtained risk scores. Results show that a multiplication-based formula, as used, for example, in the Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), has an inconsistent variance of the risk score distribution. Another approach, using a logarithm-sum-based formula, gives more consistent results but introduces other drawbacks. An estimation method based on Bayesian networks is giving more consistent variances, which are crucial for the risk estimation. With a higher precision of the risk score results, the prioritization of risks can be enhanced and resources can be better allocated to improve the level of occupational safety in academic research laboratories.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.3303/CET1331052
Author(s)
Plüss, David Nicolas  
Groso, Amela  
Meyer, Thierry  
Date Issued

2013

Published in
Chemical Engineering Transactions
Volume

31

Start page

307

End page

3012

Subjects

Judgement

•

Risk

•

Uncertainities

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
GSCP  
SCC  
Available on Infoscience
July 15, 2013
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/93348
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés