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research article

Exploring the portability of ML-based lightning nowcasting models

Mansouri, Ehsan  
•
Mostajabi, Amirhossein  
•
Kohlmann, Hannes
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November 2025
Electric Power Systems Research

Significant damages caused by lightning can be avoided by predicting lightning and taking precautionary measures. Here, a machine learning model is developed to nowcast lightning flashes using dew point temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, and previous lightning flashes. The model is trained using data from seven weather stations in Switzerland. The model demonstrates promising performance, achieving an F1 score ranging from 0.70 to 0.76. The main objective is to assess the portability of nowcasting models, by training them in one location and evaluating them in another. The goal is to develop a Machine Learning model that can be applied in regions lacking historical atmospheric measurements. The study reveals that the models generally perform well, with only a minor drop in performance in most cases (6% drop in the F1 score). However, in two cases involving mountainous terrain and tall structures, a significant drop is observed when a dataset was tested with models trained on other regions. Based on the findings, we recommend that for regions with complex topography (e.g., mountainous terrain) and/or tall structures (e.g, wind turbine parks), lightning nowcasting models should be trained on region-specific data, rather than relying on general-purpose forecasters.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111808
Author(s)
Mansouri, Ehsan  

EPFL

Mostajabi, Amirhossein  

EPFL

Kohlmann, Hannes
Tong, Chong
Rubinstein, Marcos  

HES-SO University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland

Rachidi-Haeri, Farhad  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025-11

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Electric Power Systems Research
Volume

248

Article Number

111808

Subjects

Lightning nowcasting

•

Machine learning

•

Gradient boosting

•

XGBoost

•

Lightning protection

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SCI-STI-FR  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss National Science Foundation

200020_204235

JiangSu Electric Power Co. Ltd Suzhou Branch

Available on Infoscience
June 25, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/251552
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