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research article

From Prediction to Prescription: Machine Learning and Causal Inference for the Heterogeneous Treatment Effect

Abecassis, J.
•
Dumas, Élise  
•
Alberge, Julie
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April 9, 2025
Annual Review of Biomedical Data Science

The increasing accumulation of medical data brings the hope of data-driven medical decision-making, but data's increasing complexity—as text or images in electronic health records—calls for complex models, such as machine learning. Here, we review how machine learning can be used to inform decisions for individualized interventions, a causal question. Going from prediction to causal effects is challenging, as no individual is seen as both treated and not. We detail how some data can support some causal claims and how to build causal estimators with machine learning. Beyond variable selection to adjust for confounding bias, we cover the broader notions of study design that make or break causal inference. As the problems span across diverse scientific communities, we use didactic yet statistically precise formulations to bridge machine learning to epidemiology.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1146/annurev-biodatasci-103123-095750
Author(s)
Abecassis, J.

Inria Saclay - Île de France

Dumas, Élise  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Alberge, Julie

Inria Saclay - Île de France

Varoquaux, Gaël

Inria Saclay - Île de France

Date Issued

2025-04-09

Publisher

Annual Reviews

Published in
Annual Review of Biomedical Data Science
Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
BIOSTAT  
Available on Infoscience
May 7, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/249959
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