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research article

Future trends in wind resources and their consistency in the Indian sub-continent

Zakari, Yasmine  
•
Michel, Adrien
•
Lehning, Michael  
October 1, 2022
Sustainable Energy Technologies And Assessments

We use the latest Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment regional climate models over South Asia at 0.22 degrees grid spacing (WAS-22) under two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to evaluate their performance against their predecessor at 0.44 degrees grid spacing (WAS-44) and investigate the impact of climate change on future wind resources in the Indian sub-continent. The comparison of WAS-22 with the previous WAS-44 regional climate models looks at their ability to reproduce annual and seasonal wind speed climatology and trends with respect reanalysis datasets and finds that WAS-22 models achieve the best results. Hence, we use WAS-22 models as a source of climate information, correlate them to local station measurements and wind farm operation data at three sites in the study domain. We then estimate future annual and seasonal wind trends in the Indian sub-continent. Our findings on future trends suggest increasing annual wind speeds in the north-west (+ 0.04 m/s per decade (+/- 8%)), the center (+ 0.03 m/s per decade (+/- 11%)) and the east (+ 0.02 m/s per decade (+/- 19%)) of the Indian sub-continent under the RCP 8.5 scenario at the end of the century, with changes occurring more substantially during the last 30 years of the century. The results project future perturbations during the pre-monsoon season occurring throughout India and trends with the highest magnitude concentrated during the monsoon season. An additional contribution of this investigation is a decision-making tool enabling the quantification of the spatio-temporal consistency of wind trends using a structure-function.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.seta.2022.102460
Web of Science ID

WOS:000852678000002

Author(s)
Zakari, Yasmine  
Michel, Adrien
Lehning, Michael  
Date Issued

2022-10-01

Publisher

ELSEVIER

Published in
Sustainable Energy Technologies And Assessments
Volume

53

Article Number

102460

Subjects

Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

•

Energy & Fuels

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

cordex

•

climate change projections

•

indian sub-continent

•

wind resources

•

trends

•

seasonality

•

offshore wind

•

interannual variability

•

climate-change

•

power laws

•

model

•

farm

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
CRYOS  
Available on Infoscience
September 26, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/190936
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