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  4. Are renewables really that expensive? The impact of uncertainty on the cost of the energy transition
 
conference paper

Are renewables really that expensive? The impact of uncertainty on the cost of the energy transition

Li, Xiang  
•
Moret, Stefano  
•
Baldi, Francesco  
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Kiss, Anton A.
•
Zondervan, Edwin
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2019
Proceedings of the 29th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering
The 29th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering

The dramatic evidence of climate change is making the transition to more renewable energy systems an urgent global priority. As energy planners normally look 20-50 years ahead, it is crucial to consider the key uncertainties stemming from inaccurate forecasts (e.g. of fuel prices, investment costs, etc.) in energy models to ensure making robust investment decisions. Nonetheless, uncertainty is to date seldom accounted for in energy planning models. In this paper, we challenge the general perception that the transition to a more renewable energy system always comes at a higher price; to do this, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the cost of this transition for a real-world national energy system. Concretely, we first generate a set of energy planning scenarios with increasing renewable energy penetration (REP); in a second stage, we perform an uncertainty analysis to compare the cost of these scenarios and thus to determine the significance of the difference in their total cost in presence of uncertainty. Our results show that increasing the amount of renewable energy in a national energy system is not necessarily as- sociated to a higher cost, and can even lead to a cost reduction for some specific realizations of the uncertain parameters.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1016/B978-0-128-18634-3.50293-9
Web of Science ID

WOS:000495452400104

Author(s)
Li, Xiang  
Moret, Stefano  
Baldi, Francesco  
Maréchal, François  
Editors
Kiss, Anton A.
•
Zondervan, Edwin
•
Lakerveld, Richard
•
Ozkan, Leyla
Date Issued

2019

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Publisher place

Amsterdam

Published in
Proceedings of the 29th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering
ISBN of the book

9780128186343

9780128186350

Volume

46

Start page

1753

End page

1758

Subjects

Energy planning

•

Uncertainty

•

Energy transition

•

Mixed-integer linear programming

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SCI-STI-FM  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
The 29th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering

Eindhoven, The Netherlands

June 16-19, 2019

Available on Infoscience
November 20, 2019
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/163293
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