Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Can one hear the shape of a target zone?
 
research article

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Arcand, Jean-Louis
•
Kumar, Shekhar Hari
•
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
Show more
2023
Journal of Mathematical Economics

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve explicitly for stationary and non- stationary exchange rate paths, and show how both depend continuously on the distance to the exit time and the target zone bands. This enables us to show how central bank intervention is endogenous to both the distance of the fundamental to the band and the underlying risk. We discuss how the feasibility of the target zone is shaped by the set horizon and the degree of underlying risk, and we determine a minimum time at which the required parity can be reached. We prove that increases in risk beyond a certain threshold can yield endogenous regime shifts where the ‘‘honeymoon effects’’ vanish and the target zone cannot be feasibly maintained. None of these results can be obtained by means of the standard Gaussian or affine models. Numerical simulations allow us to recover all the exchange rate densities established in the target zone literature. The generality of our framework has important policy implications for modern target zone arrangements.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.jmateco.2023.102852
Author(s)
Arcand, Jean-Louis
Kumar, Shekhar Hari
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
Rinaldo, Daniele
Date Issued

2023

Published in
Journal of Mathematical Economics
Volume

107

Article Number

102852

Subjects

Exchange rate target zones

•

Non-stationary exchange rate dynamics

•

Reflected stochastic differential equations

•

Dynamic mean-preserving spreads

•

Spectral gap

•

Regime shifts

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STI  
Available on Infoscience
June 29, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/198597
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés