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  4. Causal Discovery in Multivariate Extremes: A Study of Swiss Hydrological Catchments
 
research article

Causal Discovery in Multivariate Extremes: A Study of Swiss Hydrological Catchments

Mhalla, L.  
•
Chavez‐Demoulin, V.
•
Naveau, P.
August 25, 2025
Environmetrics

Causally‐induced asymmetry reflects the principle that an event qualifies as a cause only if its absence would prevent the occurrence of the effect. Thus, uncovering causal effects becomes a matter of comparing a well‐defined score in both directions. Motivated by studying causal effects at extreme levels of a multivariate random vector, we propose to construct a model‐agnostic causal score relying solely on the assumption of the existence of a max‐domain of attraction. Based on a representation of a generalised Pareto random vector, we construct the causal score as the Wasserstein distance between the margins and a well‐specified random variable. The proposed methodology is illustrated on a simulated dataset of different characteristics of catchments in Switzerland: discharge, precipitation, snowmelt, temperature, and evapotranspiration.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1002/env.70034
Author(s)
Mhalla, L.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Chavez‐Demoulin, V.
Naveau, P.
Date Issued

2025-08-25

Publisher

Wiley

Published in
Environmetrics
Volume

36

Issue

6

Article Number

e70034

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
MATH-GE  
Available on Infoscience
September 2, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/253683
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