Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Predicting party switching through machine learning and open data
 
research article

Predicting party switching through machine learning and open data

Meneghetti, Nicolo
•
Pacini, Fabio
•
Dal Monte, Francesca Biondi
Show more
July 21, 2023
Iscience

Parliament dynamics might seem erratic at times. Predicting future voting patterns could support policy design based on the simulation of voting scenarios. The availability of open data on legislative activities and machine learning tools might enable such prediction. In our paper, we provide evidence for this statement by developing an algorithm able to predict party switching in the Italian Parliament with over 70% accuracy up to two months in advance. The analysis was based on voting data from the XVII (2013-2018) and XVIII (2018-2022) Italian legislature. We found party switchers exhibited higher participation in secret ballots and showed a progressive decrease in coherence with their party's majority votes up to two months before the actual switch. These results show how machine learning combined with political open data can support predicting and understanding political dynamics.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.isci.2023.107098
Web of Science ID

WOS:001056609900001

Author(s)
Meneghetti, Nicolo
Pacini, Fabio
Dal Monte, Francesca Biondi
Cracchiolo, Marina
Rossi, Emanuele
Mazzoni, Alberto
Micera, Silvestro  
Date Issued

2023-07-21

Publisher

CELL PRESS

Published in
Iscience
Volume

26

Issue

7

Article Number

107098

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

chamber

•

system

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TNE  
Available on Infoscience
September 25, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/200976
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés