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research article

A methodology to optimize complex models in the context of nuclear waste repositories

Wojnarowicz, M.  
•
Madaschi, A.
•
Laloui, L.  
September 1, 2024
Computers and Geotechnics

With the increase in computational capabilities in recent decades, the possibility of modeling complex phenomena has continued to grow, inevitably increasing the number of calibrated parameters. Determining these parameters for complex coupled models can be challenging due to inherent nonlinearities, couplings, and uncertainties. This paper aims to provide a reliable methodology for calibrating and validating large-scale transient models through a rigorous assessment of model uncertainties. The methodology consists of performing a “one variable at a time” (OVAT) sensitivity analysis to identify the main effects, followed by a variance-based (VB) sensitivity analysis to uncover the most relevant model cross-couplings over the entire parameter domain. The outcomes of the sensitivity analysis are then used to identify the most influential parameters for model calibration. The calibration process leverages deterministic gradient-based methods in conjunction with a probabilistic treatment of the data using a Bayesian approach to rigorously quantify modeling uncertainties. A pivotal aspect of the Bayesian approach lies in its incorporation of the prior parameter distribution, enabling the quantification of the impact of deviating from their respective best-known values. This results in the establishment of 95% model confidence bounds around the optimized solution, reflecting the model uncertainties.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.compgeo.2024.106579
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85197635152

Author(s)
Wojnarowicz, M.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Madaschi, A.

Nesol – Numerical Engineering Solutions Sàrl

Laloui, L.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2024-09-01

Published in
Computers and Geotechnics
Volume

173

Article Number

106579

Subjects

Finite Element Method

•

Geological repository

•

Model calibration

•

Nuclear waste

•

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis

•

Uncertainty quantification

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LMS  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

NAGRA

Swiss National Cooperative Society of Radioactive Waste Storage

Available on Infoscience
January 24, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/243378
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