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research article

On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics

Bertuzzo, E.  
•
Casagrandi, R.
•
Gatto, M.
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2010
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE

We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links that are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of waterborne pathogens. Using the diffusion approximation, we analytically derive the speed of propagation for travelling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices (either one-dimensional or two-dimensional) endowed with uniform population density. Power laws are found that relate the propagation speed to the diffusion coefficient and the basic reproduction number. We numerically obtain the related, slower speed of epidemic spreading for more complex, yet realistic river structures such as Peano networks and optimal channel networks. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population sizes proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak time scales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, time scales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsif.2009.0204
Web of Science ID

WOS:000272995800008

Author(s)
Bertuzzo, E.  
Casagrandi, R.
Gatto, M.
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.
Rinaldo, A.  
Date Issued

2010

Published in
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
Volume

7

Issue

43

Start page

321

End page

333

Subjects

SIR-like models

•

optimal channel network and Peano network

•

travelling waves

•

scaling laws

•

reproduction number

•

Infectious-Disease

•

River Networks

•

Fractal Structures

•

Global Climate

•

Dynamics

•

Transmission

•

Patterns

•

Seasonality

•

Persistence

•

Diffusion

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
June 22, 2009
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/40783
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