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research article

A case study of a "Dragon-King": The 1999 Venezuelan catastrophe

Sueveges, M.  
•
Davison, A. C.  
2012
European Physical Journal-Special Topics

We describe a failure of standard extremal models to account for a catastrophic rainfall event in the coastal regions of Venezuela on 14-16 December 1999, due both to inaccurate tail modelling and to an inadequate treatment of clusters of rare events. We investigate this failure, using a Dirichlet mixture model to approximate a form of moving maximum process that should provide accurate models for wide classes of extremal behaviour. This so-called M3-Dirichlet model may be fitted using an EM algorithm, and provides a reasonable explanation for the properties of the data, in terms of a seasonally-varying mixture of types of extreme rainfall clusters.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1140/epjst/e2012-01566-6
Web of Science ID

WOS:000303337700008

Author(s)
Sueveges, M.  
Davison, A. C.  
Date Issued

2012

Published in
European Physical Journal-Special Topics
Volume

205

Start page

131

End page

146

Subjects

Nonparametric Problems

•

Inference

•

Models

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
May 25, 2012
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/80758
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