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  4. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
 
research article

Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

Gatto, Marino
•
Bertuzzo, Enrico
•
Mari, Lorenzo
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May 12, 2020
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number (R-0 = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2004978117
Web of Science ID

WOS:000532837500050

Author(s)
Gatto, Marino
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Mari, Lorenzo
Miccoli, Stefano
Carraro, Luca
Casagrandi, Renato
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2020-05-12

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences

Published in
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)
Volume

117

Issue

19

Start page

10484

End page

10491

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

sars-cov-2

•

spatially explicit epidemiology

•

disease outbreak scenarios

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seir models

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social contact restrictions

•

climate-change

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model

•

strategies

•

outbreaks

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
May 28, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/168995
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