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conference paper

Prospective study on the cost evolution for key energy technologies

Li, Xiang
•
Souttre, Matthieu
•
Schnidrig, Jonas
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July 3, 2022
PROCEEDINGS OF ECOS 2022 - THE 35TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EFFICIENCY, COST, OPTIMIZATION, SIMULATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY SYSTEMS
International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS)

Drastic variations of energy costs are witnessed in past decades, especially for low-carbon technologies, where decreasing and increasing trends co-existed. Estimating the cost evolution in the future is hence essential in long-term energy planning. Despite a number of existing studies, the estimated costs show strong hetero- geneity. Additionally, emerging technologies, such as electrolysis and CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage), have gained limited attention. To improve the plausibility of the cost projection, we analysed the rela- tionship between accumulated installation and the corresponding CAPEX for 14 low-carbon technologies, and applied 5-8 learning curves (LRs) via Non-Linear Optimization (NLP) for projecting the cost evolutions towards 2050. The LRs were carefully selected based upon the index of Coefficient of Determination, and calibrated by comparison to a bunch of existing literature. Based upon our results: (1) residential PV and onshore wind rank the highest and lowest respectively in terms of the decreasing potential; (2) the majority of energy technologies are promising to achieve 36% - 74% cost reduction in 2050 compared to 2020, with a mean value around 50%. This study can be helpful as benchmark for energy stakeholders in decision-making towards carbon neutrality.

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Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Li, Xiang
Souttre, Matthieu
Schnidrig, Jonas
Maréchal, François  
Date Issued

2022-07-03

Published in
PROCEEDINGS OF ECOS 2022 - THE 35TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EFFICIENCY, COST, OPTIMIZATION, SIMULATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY SYSTEMS
Subjects

Cost Projection

•

Learning Curve

•

Low-Carbon Technology

•

NLP Optimization

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

Event nameEvent placeEvent date
International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS)

Copenhagen, Denmark

July 1-3, 2022

Available on Infoscience
July 21, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/199312
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