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research article

Mortgage Default in an Estimated Model of the U.S. Housing Market

Lambertini, Luisa  
•
Uysal, Pinar
•
Nuguer, Victoria  
2017
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.jedc.2017.01.007
Web of Science ID

WOS:000395850500008

Author(s)
Lambertini, Luisa  
Uysal, Pinar
Nuguer, Victoria  
Date Issued

2017

Published in
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Volume

76

Start page

171

End page

201

Subjects

Housing

•

Mortgage default

•

DSGE model

•

Bayesian estimation

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SFI-LL  
RelationURL/DOI

IsNewVersionOf

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208822
Available on Infoscience
February 13, 2017
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/134272
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