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research article

Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak

Bertuzzo, E.  
•
Mari, L.  
•
Righetto, L.  
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2011
Geophysical Research Letters

Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression of the current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, and for the redistribution among them of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease. Spreading mechanisms include the diffusion of pathogens in the aquatic environment and their dissemination due to the movement of human carriers. The model reproduces the spatiotemporal features of the outbreak to date, thus suggesting the robustness of predicted future developments of the epidemic. We estimate that, under unchanged conditions, the number of new cases in the whole country should start to decrease in January. During this month the epidemic should mainly involve the Ouest department (Port-au-Prince) while fading out in northern regions. Our spatially explicit model allows also the analysis of the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. To that end our results show that mass vaccinations would have a negligible impact at this stage of the epidemic. We also show that targeted sanitation strategies, providing clean drinking water supply and/or staging educational campaigns aimed at reducing exposure, may weaken the strength of the residual evolution of the infection. Citation: Bertuzzo, E., L. Mari, L. Righetto, M. Gatto, R. Casagrandi, M. Blokesch, I. RodriguezIturbe, and A. Rinaldo (2011), Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06403, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046823.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1029/2011GL046823
Web of Science ID

WOS:000288604700005

Author(s)
Bertuzzo, E.  
Mari, L.  
Righetto, L.  
Gatto, M.
Casagrandi, R.
Blokesch, M.  
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.
Rinaldo, A.  
Date Issued

2011

Publisher

American Geophysical Union

Published in
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume

38

Article Number

L06403

Subjects

Infectious-Disease

•

Global Climate

•

Dynamics

•

Epidemic

•

Vaccines

•

Systems

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

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ECHO  
UPBLO  
Available on Infoscience
December 16, 2011
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/74342
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