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  4. Evaluation of biospheric components in earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: The state-of-the-art
 
research article

Evaluation of biospheric components in earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: The state-of-the-art

Foley, A. M.
•
Dalmonech, D.
•
Friend, A. D.
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December 16, 2013
Biogeosciences

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process-and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes. © 2013 Author(s).

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Type
research article
DOI
10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013
Web of Science ID

WOS:000329054600032

Author(s)
Foley, A. M.
Dalmonech, D.
Friend, A. D.
Aires, F.
Archibald, A. T.
Bartlein, P.
Bopp, L.
Chappellaz, J.
Cox, P.
Edwards, N. R.
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Date Issued

2013-12-16

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Published in
Biogeosciences
Volume

10

Issue

12

Start page

8305

End page

8328

Subjects

biosphere

•

carbon cycle

•

Earth science

•

emission

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numerical model

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paleoclimate

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paleoenvironment

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uncertainty analysis

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
SENSE  
Available on Infoscience
November 23, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/192625
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