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research article

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Yang, Bingyi
•
Huang, Angkana T.
•
Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo
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June 11, 2021
Nature Communications

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R-eff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R-eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R-eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median R-eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others. Disentangling the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission is challenging as they have been used in different combinations across time and space. This study shows that, early in the epidemic, school/daycare closures and stopping nursing home visits were associated with the biggest reduction in transmission in the United States.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8
Web of Science ID

WOS:000663756500009

Author(s)
Yang, Bingyi
Huang, Angkana T.
Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo
Hart, William E.
Staid, Andrea
Hitchings, Matt D. T.
Lee, Elizabeth C.
Howe, Chanelle J.
Grantz, Kyra H.
Wesolowksi, Amy
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Date Issued

2021-06-11

Publisher

Nature Research

Published in
Nature Communications
Volume

12

Issue

1

Article Number

3560

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

r-package

•

covid-19

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
July 17, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/180118
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