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research article

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Seidl, Rupert
•
Fernandes, Paulo M.
•
Fonseca, Teresa F.
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2011
Ecological Modelling

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests and ungulate browsing. Modelling approaches were reviewed by disturbance agent and mechanism, and a set of general disturbance modelling concepts was deduced. We found that although the number of disturbance modelling approaches emerging over the last 15 years has increased strongly, statistical concepts for descriptive modelling are still largely prevalent over mechanistic concepts for explanatory and predictive applications. Yet, considering the increasing importance of disturbances for forest dynamics and ecosystem stewardship under anthropogenic climate change, the latter concepts are crucial tool for understanding and coping with change in forest ecosystems. Current challenges for disturbance modelling in forest ecosystems are thus (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, (ii) to further a mechanistic foundation in disturbance modelling, (iii) to integrate multiple disturbance processes in dynamic ecosystem models for decision support in forest management, and (iv) to bring together scaling capabilities across several levels of organization with a representation of system complexity that captures the emergent behaviour of disturbance regimes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.040
Web of Science ID

WOS:000287291000001

Author(s)
Seidl, Rupert
Fernandes, Paulo M.
Fonseca, Teresa F.
Gillet, François  
Jönsson, Anna Maria
Merganičová, Katarína
Netherer, Sigrid
Arpaci, Alexander
Bontemps, Jean-Daniel
Bugmann, Harald
Date Issued

2011

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Ecological Modelling
Volume

222

Issue

4

Start page

903

End page

924

Subjects

Disturbance modelling

•

Wildfire

•

Wind storm

•

Drought

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Insect herbivory

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Browsing

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Mountain Pine-Beetle

•

Ips-Typographus L.

•

Douglas-Fir Beetle

•

Spruce Budworm Defoliation

•

Dendroctonus-Ponderosae Hopkins

•

Predicting Postfire Mortality

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Decision-Support-System

•

Western United-States

•

Global Climate-Change

•

Colorado Front Range

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECOS  
Available on Infoscience
February 28, 2011
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/64904
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