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research article

An unethical optimization principle

Beale, Nicholas
•
Battey, Heather
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
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July 1, 2020
Royal Society Open Science

If an artificial intelligence aims to maximize risk-adjusted return, then under mild conditions it is disproportionately likely to pick an unethical strategy unless the objective function allows sufficiently for this risk. Even if the proportion eta of available unethical strategies is small, the probability p(U) of picking an unethical strategy can become large; indeed, unless returns are fat-tailed p(U) tends to unity as the strategy space becomes large. We define an unethical odds ratio, Upsilon (capital upsilon), that allows us to calculate p(U) from eta, and we derive a simple formula for the limit of Upsilon as the strategy space becomes large. We discuss the estimation of Upsilon and p(U) in finite cases and how to deal with infinite strategy spaces. We show how the principle can be used to help detect unethical strategies and to estimate eta. Finally we sketch some policy implications of this work.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsos.200462
Web of Science ID

WOS:000546992900001

Author(s)
Beale, Nicholas
Battey, Heather
Davison, Anthony C.  
MacKay, Robert S.
Date Issued

2020-07-01

Publisher

ROYAL SOC

Published in
Royal Society Open Science
Volume

7

Issue

7

Article Number

200462

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

ai ethics

•

artificial intelligence

•

economics

•

extreme value theory

•

financial regulation

Note

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License.

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
July 23, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/170308
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