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  4. Sub-Matrix Factorization for Real-Time Vote Prediction
 
conference paper

Sub-Matrix Factorization for Real-Time Vote Prediction

Immer, Alexander
•
Kristof, Victor  
•
Grossglauser, Matthias  
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August 23, 2020
KDD '20: Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining
The 26th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - KDD ’20

We address the problem of predicting aggregate vote outcomes (e.g., national) from partial outcomes (e.g., regional) that are revealed sequentially. We combine matrix factorization techniques and generalized linear models (GLMs) to obtain a flexible, efficient, and accurate algorithm. This algorithm works in two stages: First, it learns representations of the regions from high-dimensional historical data. Second, it uses these representations to fit a GLM to the partially observed results and to predict unobserved results. We show experimentally that our algorithm is able to accurately predict the outcomes of Swiss referenda, U.S. presidential elections, and German legislative elections. We also explore the regional representations in terms of ideological and cultural patterns. Finally, we deploy an online Web platform (www.predikon.ch) to provide real- time vote predictions in Switzerland and a data visualization tool to explore voting behavior. A by-product is a dataset of sequential vote results for 330 referenda and 2196 Swiss municipalities.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1145/3394486.3403277
Author(s)
Immer, Alexander
Kristof, Victor  
Grossglauser, Matthias  
Thiran, Patrick  
Date Issued

2020-08-23

Published in
KDD '20: Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining
Start page

2280

End page

2290

Subjects

matrix factorization

•

generalized linear models

•

data-driven political science

URL

Predikon

http://www.predikon.ch
Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
INDY2  
INDY1  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
The 26th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - KDD ’20

Virtual Event

August 23–27, 2020

Available on Infoscience
July 25, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/170364
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