Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. EPFL thesis
  4. Data-Driven Predictive Models: Calculational Bias in Characterization of Spent Nuclear Fuel
 
doctoral thesis

Data-Driven Predictive Models: Calculational Bias in Characterization of Spent Nuclear Fuel

Shama, Ahmed Salaheldin Ahmed  
2022

Characteristics of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) are typically calculated, requiring validation a priori. The validation process relies on the difference between calculations and measurements, namely the bias. Usually, predicting the bias based on benchmarks is essential, which motivated the present research, focusing on SNF decay heat and Cs-137, U-235, and Pu-239 concentrations. The validation benchmarks are from open-literature, i.e., SNF design and irradiation specifications, as well as the measurements of their characteristics. For the decay heat, they correspond to 262 measurements, conducted at the Clab and the GE-Morris facilities. For the radionuclide concentrations, they are 285 post-irradiation-examination samples, obtained from the SFCOMPO database. The calculations rely on the SCALE code system, namely the Polaris code and the SCALE-based nuclear data. Uncertainties of nuclear data and SNF design and operational history are propagated to the calculated quantities, for two purposes: (1) to assess if the biases are statistically significant, given the calculated uncertainties, and (2) to obtain correlation matrices between the benchmarks. Statistical analyses, resampling and z-tests, are applied on the validation and uncertainty analyses data. They indicate that the biases in several of the analyzed characteristics are significant with respect to uncertainties in the calculated values. For the decay heat case, the biases are considered not significant considering both the calculated and experimental uncertainties. It is also shown that it is crucial to include the correlations between the benchmarks into the hypothesis testing. Then, a novel approach is followed, by applying machine learning (ML) methods to predict the bias of calculated SNF characteristics. The predictive performance is analyzed by comparing the ML-based bias predictions and the validation-based biases. The analyzed ML models predict the bias using highly similar benchmarks or neighbors of the benchmarks, namely Random Forests (RF) and Weighted k-Nearest Neighbors (KKNN). Also, the linear model is analyzed. This research shows that the bias of the decay heat and Pu-239 concentration can be predicted with a reasonable accuracy, relying on specific features of validation benchmarks, or their correlations. The predicted biases bear statistically significant similarities to the observed ones from the validation procedure, using both the RF and the KKNN models. The variances in the original validation data are significantly reduced. The models predict the bias using the spectral index for the decay heat and the hydrogen-to-fissile atom ratio for the Pu-239 concentration. Also, the correlation matrices show that they are informative in predicting the bias of both characteristics. In the case of the U-235 and Cs-137 concentrations, biases could not be satisfactorily predicted. Additionally, the linear models have shown unsatisfactory performance.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
doctoral thesis
DOI
10.5075/epfl-thesis-9309
Author(s)
Shama, Ahmed Salaheldin Ahmed  
Advisors
Pautz, Andreas  
•
Rochman, Dimitri  
Jury

Dr Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui (président) ; Prof. Andreas Pautz, Dr Dimitri Rochman (directeurs) ; Prof. Annalisa Manera, Dr. Germina Ilas, Dr. Peter Schillebeeckx (rapporteurs)

Date Issued

2022

Publisher

EPFL

Publisher place

Lausanne

Public defense year

2022-01-31

Thesis number

9309

Total of pages

259

Subjects

SNF

•

validation

•

bias

•

predictive models

•

neighborhood schemes

•

correlation matrix

•

SCALE

•

Polaris

EPFL units
LRS  
Faculty
SB  
School
IPHYS  
Doctoral School
EDEY  
Available on Infoscience
January 17, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/184600
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés