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research article

Travel Time Prediction for Congested Freeways With a Dynamic Linear Model

Kwak, Semin  
•
Geroliminis, Nikolas  
December 1, 2021
Ieee Transactions On Intelligent Transportation Systems

Accurate prediction of travel time is an essential feature to support Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The non-linearity of traffic states, however, makes this prediction a challenging task. Here we propose to use dynamic linear models (DLMs) to approximate the non-linear traffic states. Unlike a static linear regression model, the DLMs assume that their parameters are changing across time. We design a DLM with model parameters defined at each time unit to describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of time-series traffic data. Based on our DLM and its model parameters analytically trained using historical data, we suggest an optimal linear predictor in the minimum mean square error (MMSE) sense. We compare our prediction accuracy of travel time for freeways in California (I210-E and I5-S) under highly congested traffic conditions with those of other methods: the instantaneous travel time, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, and artificial neural network. We show significant improvements in the accuracy, especially for short-term prediction.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1109/TITS.2020.3006910
Web of Science ID

WOS:000722718400032

Author(s)
Kwak, Semin  
Geroliminis, Nikolas  
Date Issued

2021-12-01

Publisher

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC

Published in
Ieee Transactions On Intelligent Transportation Systems
Volume

22

Issue

12

Start page

7667

End page

7677

Subjects

Engineering, Civil

•

Engineering, Electrical & Electronic

•

Transportation Science & Technology

•

Engineering

•

Transportation

•

predictive models

•

traffic control

•

intelligent transportation systems

•

data models

•

feature extraction

•

mathematical model

•

gaussian noise

•

travel time prediction

•

dynamic linear model

•

time-varying coefficients

•

least-squares

•

minimum mean square error

•

space neural-networks

•

real-time

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LUTS  
Available on Infoscience
December 4, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/183478
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