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  4. A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures
 
research article

A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures

Giezendanner, Jonathan  
•
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
•
Pasetto, Damiano  
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March 18, 2019
PLoS ONE

A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0213775
Author(s)
Giezendanner, Jonathan  
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
Pasetto, Damiano  
Guisan, Antoine
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2019-03-18

Published in
PLoS ONE
Volume

14

Start page

1

End page

19

Subjects

Climate change

•

Species extinction

•

Ecological niches

•

Species delimitation

•

Mountains

•

Species colonization

•

Geomorphology

•

Topography

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
FunderGrant Number

H2020

641762

EU funding

227612

FNS

00021_124930/1

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Available on Infoscience
March 19, 2019
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/155637
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