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doctoral thesis

Spatiotemporal modelling of extreme wildfires and severe thunderstorm environments

Koh Boon Han, Jonathan  
2022

Environmental extreme events can have devastating impacts on society when they interact with vulnerable human and natural systems. Such events can result from natural causes, like phenomena related to the El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation or decadal/multi-decadal climate variations. These causes can follow an increase in human activity, e.g., through land-use changes or anthropogenic climate change, that can influence the frequency, intensity, spatial extent and timing of these events, and spur unprecedented extremes. To accurately understand and quantify the risks associated with these events, it is important to identify trends related to these causes, which may be measured or unmeasured.

Fitting models for rare events is inherently difficult because of the paucity of data available. The most destructive extreme events are rarely isolated in space and time, so one must account for their spatial and temporal dependencies. This thesis deals with the parametric modelling of severe thunderstorms and wildfires using models motivated from limiting probabilistic results.

The first part of this thesis explores influences on the magnitude and spatial extent of extremes of environments related to severe US thunderstorms. Our results show that the risk from severe thunderstorms in April and May is increasing in parts of the US where it was already high, and that the risk from storms in February increases during La Ni~na years. We also show that these extremes are more localized during spring/summer seasons than in the winter, and find that some of these seasonal differences are more pronounced during El Ni~no years.

The second part of the thesis deals with predicting and explaining the spatial extent, frequency, intensity and timing of wildfires using meteorological and land-use covariates. Our first approach uses ideas from extreme-value theory in a machine learning context to give good prediction of the distributional tails of our data. The second approach uses a novel Bayesian hierarchical model designed specifically for extreme wildfires. We show that wildfire risk on the French Mediterranean basin is affected by significant random effects related to land-use and policy changes, and a seasonally-varying fire-weather index.

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Type
doctoral thesis
DOI
10.5075/epfl-thesis-9156
Author(s)
Koh Boon Han, Jonathan  
Advisors
Davison, Anthony Christopher  
Jury

Prof. Clément Hongler (président) ; Prof. Anthony Christopher Davison (directeur de thèse) ; Prof. Alexis Berne, Prof. Benjamin Shaby, Dr. Thordis L Thorarinsdottir (rapporteurs)

Date Issued

2022

Publisher

EPFL

Publisher place

Lausanne

Public defense year

2022-01-14

Thesis number

9156

Total of pages

154

Subjects

Bayesian hierarchical model

•

environmental statistics

•

extreme values

•

generalized extreme value distribution

•

generalized Pareto distribution

•

gradient boosting

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max-stability

•

model validation

•

severe thunderstorms

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wildfire modelling

EPFL units
STAT  
Faculty
SB  
School
MATHAA  
Doctoral School
EDMA  
Available on Infoscience
January 13, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/184432
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