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research article

Model-free computation of ultra-short-term prediction intervals of solar irradiance

Torregrossa, Dimitri  
•
Le Boudec, Jean-Yves  
•
Paolone, Mario  
2016
Solar Energy

We propose an ultra-short-term dynamic interval predictor (DIP) of solar irradiance. Our DIP relies on experimentally observed correlations between the derivative of the solar irradiance and the forecast error in the next time-step. The main originalities of this DIP are (i) its independence from the method used for the point forecast of solar irradiance, (ii) its independence from the error distribution of the point-forecast method. We compare the DIP with the most common prediction interval methods. By using significant data set covering several months of experimental observations, we have observed higher accuracy and lower width of the prediction intervals of the proposed DIP.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.solener.2015.11.017
Web of Science ID

WOS:000369459600005

Author(s)
Torregrossa, Dimitri  
Le Boudec, Jean-Yves  
Paolone, Mario  
Date Issued

2016

Publisher

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd

Published in
Solar Energy
Volume

124

Start page

57

End page

67

Subjects

Forecast

•

Solar irradiance

•

Prediction Intervals

•

epfl-smartgrids

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LCA2  
DESL  
Available on Infoscience
December 2, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/120909
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