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research article

Real-Time Prediction of Students' Activity Progress and Completion Rates

Faucon, Louis  
•
Olsen, Jennifer K.  
•
Haklev, Stian  
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January 1, 2020
Journal Of Learning Analytics

In classrooms, some transitions between activities impose (quasi-)synchronicity, meaning there is a need for learners to move between activities at the same time. To make real-time decisions about when to move to the next activity, teachers need to be able to balance the progress of their students as they work at different paces. In this paper, we present a set of estimators that can be used in real time to predict the progress and completion rates of students working on computer-supported activities that can be divided into sequential subtasks. With our estimators, we investigate what effect the average progress rate of the class, a given number of previous steps, or weighting the proportion of progress assigned to each subtask has on predictions of students' progress. We find that accounting for the average class progress rate near the beginning of the activity can improve predictions over baseline. Additionally, weighted subtasks decrease prediction accuracy for activities where the behaviour of faster students diverges from the average behaviour of the class. This paper contributes to our ability to provide accurate student progress predictions and to understand the behaviour of students as they progress through the activity. These real-time predictions can enable teachers to optimize learning time in their classrooms.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.18608/jla.2020.72.2
Web of Science ID

WOS:000573840100002

Author(s)
Faucon, Louis  
Olsen, Jennifer K.  
Haklev, Stian  
Dillenbourg, Pierre  
Date Issued

2020-01-01

Publisher

SOC LEARNING ANALYTICS RESEARCH-SOLAR

Published in
Journal Of Learning Analytics
Volume

7

Issue

2

Start page

18

End page

44

Subjects

Education & Educational Research

•

Education & Educational Research

•

classroom orchestration

•

instructional timing

•

progress predictions

•

system

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
CHILI  
Available on Infoscience
October 15, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/172477
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