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research article

Quantifying Endogeneity of Cryptocurrency Markets

Mark, Michael  
•
Sila, Jan
•
Weber, Thomas A.  
2022
European Journal of Finance

We construct a ‘reflexivity’ index to measure the activity generated endogenously within a market for cryptocurrencies. For this purpose, we fit a univariate self-exciting Hawkes process with two classes of parametric kernels to high-frequency trading data. A parsimonious model of both endogenous and exogenous dynamics enables a direct comparison with exchanges for traditional asset classes, in terms of identified branching ratios. We also formulate a ‘Hawkes disorder problem,’ as a generalization of the established Poisson disorder problem, and provide a simulation-based approach to determining an optimal observation horizon. Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin mid-price dynamics feature long-memory properties, well explained by the power-law kernel, at a level of criticality similar to the fiat-currency market.

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Mark-Sila-Weber-EJoF-2022.pdf

Type

Postprint

Version

http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa

Access type

openaccess

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CC BY

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3.56 MB

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Adobe PDF

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68f9a856b3db778b4349edaf8024bfe6

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