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research article

Can we trust explainable artificial intelligence in wind power forecasting?

Liao, Wenlong  
•
Fang, Jiannong  
•
Ye, Lin
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August 15, 2024
Applied Energy

Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) models typically achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but their internal mechanisms lack interpretability, which undermines user confidence in forecast value and strategy execution. To this end, this paper aims to investigate the interpretability of AI models, which is crucial but usually overlooked in wind power forecasting. Specifically, four model-agnostic explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques (i.e., Shapley additive explanations, permutation feature importance, partial dependence plot, and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations) are tailored to provide global and instance interpretability for AI models in wind power forecasting. Then, several metrics are proposed to evaluate the trustworthiness of interpretations provided by XAI techniques. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed XAI techniques can not only identify important features from wind power datasets, but also enable the understanding of the contribution of each feature to the forecast power output for a specific sample. Furthermore, the proposed evaluation metrics aid users in comprehensively assessing the trustworthiness of XAI techniques in wind power forecasting, enabling them to judiciously select suitable XAI techniques for their AI models.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124273
Author(s)
Liao, Wenlong  

EPFL

Fang, Jiannong  

EPFL

Ye, Lin
Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
Yang, Zhe
Porté-Agel, Fernando  

EPFL

Date Issued

2024-08-15

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

376

Issue

Part A

Article Number

124273

Subjects

Wind power forecast

•

Explainable artificial intelligence

•

Trustworthy Neural network

•

Time series

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
WIRE  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss Federal Office of Energy

SI/502135–01

Available on Infoscience
October 1, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/241433
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