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research article

Macroeconomic conditions and a firm's investment decisions

Jeon, Haejun
•
Nishihara, Michi
2014
Finance Research Letters

We propose a model of a firm's reversible investment decision with macroeconomic conditions based on optimal switching of a diffusion regime. The switching costs and the cash flow generated from the firm depend on a business cycle alternating via a Markov chain, and the triggers of investment and disinvestment in each state are determined endogenously. Provided the investment costs are cyclical due to high wages and rents in a boom, the investment tends to be delayed in boom, while the disinvestment is likely to be made earlier in terms of the level of switching triggers. This result shows us that the 'hysteresis' of investment is a rigorous phenomenon that does not change dramatically depending on business cycle. Yet, the business cycle may still amplify and propagate the exogenous shocks from macroeconomic conditions as far as the persistence of business cycle is concerned. In particular, the investment is deferred and the disinvestment occurs earlier when recession lasts longer and boom ends soon. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.frl.2014.08.002
Web of Science ID

WOS:000346392200010

Author(s)
Jeon, Haejun
Nishihara, Michi
Date Issued

2014

Publisher

Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science

Published in
Finance Research Letters
Volume

11

Issue

4

Start page

398

End page

409

Subjects

Real options

•

Optimal switching

•

Reversible investment

•

Macroeconomic conditions

•

Business cycle

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SFI  
Available on Infoscience
February 20, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/111486
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