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research article

Regional variation in the rural-urban fertility gradient in the developing world

Lerch, Mathias  
July 19, 2019
PLOS ONE

The study of regional trends in the rural-urban fertility gradient helps us to understand the pace of completion of the fertility transition and the geography of urban growth in the global South. We question whether the hypothesized inverted U-shaped evolution in rural excess fertility is confirmed in four developing regions, and investigate the underlying fertility dynamics by place of residence. Using multiple surveys for 60 developing countries, we analyze long-term rural and urban trends in cohort fertility. The regional comparison is controlled for the international heterogeneity in the stages attained in the fertility transition and the context of urbanization. We found a clearly inverted U-shaped trend in the rural-urban fertility gradient in Latin America, the Middle East and Northern Africa. In Asia, rural excess fertility remained limited. In sub-Saharan Africa it increased monotonically until the most recent cohorts. These differences stem from variations in the urban-to-rural diffusion of the onset of fertility transition and, in sub-Saharan Africa, from a slower pace of decline in rural areas.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0219624
Author(s)
Lerch, Mathias  
Date Issued

2019-07-19

Published in
PLOS ONE
Volume

14

Issue

7

Article Number

e021962

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
GR-URBDEMO  
Available on Infoscience
January 16, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/193925
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