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  4. Cumulants of Hawkes Processes are Robust to Observation Noise
 
conference paper

Cumulants of Hawkes Processes are Robust to Observation Noise

Trouleau, William  
•
Etesami, Jalal  
•
Grossglauser, Matthias  
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January 1, 2021
International Conference On Machine Learning, Vol 139
International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are widely used in a variety of fields to model the occurrence of causally related discrete events in continuous time. Most state-of-the-art approaches address the problem of learning MHPs from perfect traces without noise. In practice, the process through which events are collected might introduce noise in the timestamps. In this work, we address the problem of learning the causal structure of MHPs when the observed timestamps of events are subject to random and unknown shifts, also known as random translations. We prove that the cumulants of MHPs are invariant to random translations, and therefore can be used to learn their underlying causal structure. Furthermore, we empirically characterize the effect of random translations on state-of-the-art learning methods. We show that maximum likelihood-based estimators are brittle, while cumulant-based estimators remain stable even in the presence of significant time shifts.

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Type
conference paper
Web of Science ID

WOS:000768182700042

Author(s)
Trouleau, William  
Etesami, Jalal  
Grossglauser, Matthias  
Kiyavash, Negar  
Thiran, Patrick  
Date Issued

2021-01-01

Publisher

JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH

Publisher place

San Diego

Published in
International Conference On Machine Learning, Vol 139
Series title/Series vol.

Proceedings of Machine Learning Research

Volume

139

Start page

7459

End page

7468

Subjects

Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence

•

Computer Science

•

point-processes

•

spectra

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

Event nameEvent placeEvent date
International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)

ELECTR NETWORK

Jul 18-24, 2021

Available on Infoscience
May 9, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/187620
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