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research article

The Impact of Migration on Age Structure Conducive to Human Development Across the Urban Hierarchy

Du, Wenxiu  
•
Beckendorff, Dorothee  
•
Lerch, Mathias  
2025
Population and Development Review

A larger working-age population supports economic and social development, and many developing countries are currently benefiting from this demographic window. However, internal migration—often age-selective—can create subnational inequalities by redistributing working-age individuals from less developed areas to cities in search of employment and upward social mobility. While many studies have explored the age selectivity of migration, few have examined its impact on subnational age structures, and none have assessed variation within urban areas using globally representative data from the Global South. This study addresses that gap by analyzing how migration affects the working-age population across the urban hierarchy during national urbanization, using 103 microcensuses from 46 developing countries. Findings show that internal migration's impact varies by urbanization level: it generally increases the share of working-age individuals in cities but has the opposite effect in rural areas. In big cities, migration boosts the working-age share, but this effect weakens and eventually reverses in smaller towns and rural areas. These patterns are largely driven by migration among young adults aged 15–24. The study advances a generalizable theory on migration's role in shaping age structures, helping to explain subnational variations in the demographic dividend and supporting more targeted policy planning.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1111/padr.70033
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-105021215087

Author(s)
Du, Wenxiu  

EPFL

Beckendorff, Dorothee  

EPFL

Lerch, Mathias  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025

Published in
Population and Development Review
Subjects

age structure

•

demographic dividend

•

Global South

•

internal migration

•

urban demography

•

urban hierarchy

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
GR-URBDEMO  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

European Research Council

European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program

MIC‐950065

Available on Infoscience
November 20, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/256044
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