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research article

Crypto Market Betas: The Limits of Predictability and Hedging

Sila, Jan
•
Mark, Michael  
•
Kristoufek, Ladislav
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May 14, 2025
Financial Innovation

This article analyzes the predictability of market betas concerning cryptocurrency assets and evaluates the efficiency of beta-hedged, market-neutral portfolios. We forecast 1-year-ahead market betas using various estimating methods, including ordinary least squares (OLS) and Vasicek’s Bayesian shrinkage estimator, and assess their impact on portfolio variance reduction across cryptomarket indices. Our findings indicate that while standard OLS betas explain significantly less of the variation in future betas for cryptoassets compared to US stocks, slope winsorization and Bayesian shrinkage improve prediction accuracy. The results suggest that beta-hedged portfolios reduce variance for approximately 17% of the universe, with the Broad Digital Market Index demonstrating the best hedging efficiency. These findings underscore the significant challenges of developing effective hedging strategies in the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the importance of idiosyncratic risk in crypto returns and the need for appropriate market index representation.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1186/s40854-025-00777-w
Author(s)
Sila, Jan
Mark, Michael  
Kristoufek, Ladislav
Weber, Thomas A.  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025-05-14

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published in
Financial Innovation
Volume

11

Issue

107

Subjects

Asset pricing

•

Market beta

•

Cryptocurrency

•

Crypto

•

Market risk

•

CAPM

•

Bitcoin

•

Beta-hedging JEL Classification: G10

•

G12

•

C58

•

C21

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
OES  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Grantová Agentura České Republiky

23-06606 S

Charles University

Cooperatio, research area Economics ; 24/SSH/020 ; SVV 260 843

Available on Infoscience
May 22, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/250391
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