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research article

Fatigue damage reduction in hydropower startups with machine learning

Muser, Till
•
Krymova, Ekaterina  
•
Morabito, Alessandro  
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December 1, 2025
Nature Communications

As the global shift towards renewable energy accelerates, achieving stability in power systems is crucial. Hydropower accounts for approximately 17% of energy produced worldwide, and with its capacity for active and reactive power regulation, is well-suited to provide necessary ancillary services. However, as demand for these services rises, hydropower systems must adapt to handle rapid dynamic changes and off-design conditions. Fatigue damage in hydraulic machines, driven by fluctuating loads and varying mechanical stresses, is especially prominent during the transient start-up of the machine. In this study, we introduce a data-driven approach to identify transient start-up trajectories that minimize fatigue damage. We optimize the trajectory by leveraging a machine learning model, trained on experimental stress data of reduced-scale model turbines. Numerical and experimental results confirm that our optimized trajectory significantly reduces start-up damage, representing a meaningful advancement in hydropower operations, maintenance, and the safe transition to higher operational flexibility.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1038/s41467-025-58229-z
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-105001389432

PubMed ID

40140399

Author(s)
Muser, Till

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Krymova, Ekaterina  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Morabito, Alessandro  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Seydoux, Martin  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Vagnoni, Elena  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2025-12-01

Published in
Nature Communications
Volume

16

Issue

1

Article Number

2961

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SDSC-GE  
PTMH-GE  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich

Available on Infoscience
April 8, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/248909
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