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  4. Prediction of cholera dynamics in Haiti following the passage of Hurricane Matthew
 
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Prediction of cholera dynamics in Haiti following the passage of Hurricane Matthew

Camacho, Anton
•
Cohuet, Sandra
•
Grandesso, Francesco
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2016

Following the landfall of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti on October 3, 2016, an increase of suspected cholera cases was reported in both the southern part of the island (with Grande-Anse and Le Sud departments reporting 1349 and 1533 cases respectively between 5 October and 6 November) and also in the capital, Port-au-Prince (438 cases reported over the same period). The hurricane caused the displacement of about 175,000 people, the vast majority of which remained in their department of origin; however, about 10% appear to have displaced to the capital Port-au-Prince. In this context, a mass OCV vaccination campaign was planned, starting on November 8 and targeting 816,999 individuals in Grande-Anse and Le Sud. The aim of this study is to provide additional information to health actors responding to the post-hurricane cholera outbreak in Haiti. To this end, we calibrated a mechanistic model of cholera transmission on currently available data for Haiti in order to forecast the spatio-temporal dynamics of the cholera epidemic at the departmental level from November 2016 to January 2017. Model outputs have been translated into operational recommendations, with a focus on the scheduled OCV campaign.

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Type
report
Author(s)
Camacho, Anton
Cohuet, Sandra
Grandesso, Francesco
Luquero, Francisco
Lynch, Emily
Pasetto, Damiano  
Finger, Flavio  
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2016

Total of pages

6

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
November 28, 2016
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/131645
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