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research article

Input factor substitution under climate-neutral pathways

Cocker, Fleance  
•
Thalmann, Philippe  
•
Vielle, Marc  
August 1, 2025
Applied Energy

Achieving climate neutrality will require clean alternatives to entirely replace fossil energy carriers and technologies in most economic sectors. However, standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) frameworks, which are widely used to analyse climate policies and rely on nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions, are not well suited for simulating the full substitution of incumbent factor inputs implicit in deep decarbonisation scenarios. This study presents an alternative modelling procedure, based on the logistic distribution, to overcome the "stickiness" of technological diffusion under CES functional forms. Deep decarbonisation scenarios are simulated with a large-scale recursive-dynamic international CGE model to illustrate the advantages of the suggested approach. By decomposing the overall effects of changing functional forms into distinct components, we highlight the way in which key modelling assumptions affect various macroeconomic and climate policy variables.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126505
Author(s)
Cocker, Fleance  

EPFL

Thalmann, Philippe  

EPFL

Vielle, Marc  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025-08-01

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

399

Article Number

126505

Subjects

Deep decarbonisation pathway

•

Technology diffusion

•

Computable general equilibrium

•

Constant elasticity of substitution

•

Logistic distribution

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss Federal Office of Energy

SI/502094-01

Available on Infoscience
August 5, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/242117.2
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