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  4. On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic
 
conference presentation

On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

Bertuzzo, Enrico  
•
Finger, Flavio  
•
Mari, Lorenzo  
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2014
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014

Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

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Type
conference presentation
Author(s)
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
Finger, Flavio  
Mari, Lorenzo  
Gatto, Marino
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2014

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014

Vienna, AT

27/4-02/5 2014

Available on Infoscience
March 3, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/111806
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