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research article

Big data mining for the estimation of hourly rooftop photovoltaic potential and its uncertainty

Walch, Alina  
•
Castello, Roberto  
•
Mohajeri, Nahid
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January 28, 2020
Applied Energy

The large-scale deployment of photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops can play a significant role in the transition to a low-carbon energy system. To date, the lack of high-resolution building and environmental data and the large uncertainties related to existing processing methods impede the accurate estimation of large-scale rooftop PV potentials. To address this gap, we developed a methodology that combines Machine Learning algorithms, Geographic Information Systems and physical models to estimate the technical PV potential for individual roof surfaces at hourly temporal resolution. We further estimate the uncertainties related to each step of the potential assessment and combine them to quantify the uncertainty on the final PV potential. The methodology is applied to 9.6 million rooftops in Switzerland and can be transferred to any large region or country with sufficient available data. Our results suggest that 55% of the total Swiss roof surface is available for the installation of PV panels, yielding an annual technical rooftop PV potential of . This could meet more than 40% of Switzerland’s current annual electricity demand. The presented method for an hourly rooftop PV potential and uncertainty estimation can be applied to the large-scale assessment of future energy systems with decentralised electricity grids. The results can be used to propose effective policies for the integration of rooftop photovoltaics in the built environment.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114404
Author(s)
Walch, Alina  
Castello, Roberto  
Mohajeri, Nahid
Scartezzini, Jean-Louis  
Date Issued

2020-01-28

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

262

Article Number

114404

Note

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 4.0.

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LESO-PB  
Available on Infoscience
January 29, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/165012
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