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Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

Glerum, Aurélie  
•
Stankovikj, Lidija
•
Thémans, Michaël  
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2012

In the context of the arrival of electric vehicles on the car market, new mathematical models are needed to understand and predict the impact on the market shares. This research provides a comprehensive methodology to forecast the demand of a technology which is not widespread yet, such as electric cars. It aims at providing contributions regarding three issues related to the prediction of the demand for electric vehicles: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with personalized choice situations involving standard gasoline/diesel cars and electric cars. We specify a hybrid choice model accounting for attitudes towards leasing contracts or practical aspects of a car in the decision-making process. A forecasting analysis based on the collected SP data and market data is performed to evaluate the future demand for electric cars.

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Type
report
Author(s)
Glerum, Aurélie  
Stankovikj, Lidija
Thémans, Michaël  
Bierlaire, Michel  
Date Issued

2012

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TRANSP-OR  
Available on Infoscience
January 20, 2014
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/99917
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