Mixture models for multivariate extremes

This thesis is a contribution to multivariate extreme value statistics. The tail of a multivariate distribution function is characterized by its spectral distribution, for which we propose a new semi-parametric model based on mixtures of Dirichlet distributions. To estimate the components of this model, reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov chain and EM algorithms are developed. Their performances are illustrated on real and simulated data, obtained using new representations of the extremal logistic and Dirichlet models. In parallel with the estimation of the spectral distribution, extreme value statistic machinery requires the selection of a threshold in order to classify data as extreme or not. This selection is achieved by a new method based on heuristic arguments. It allows a selection independent of the dimension of the data. Its performance is illustrated on real and simulated data. Primal scientific interests behind a multivariate extreme value analysis reside in the estimation of quantiles of rare events and in the exploration of the dependence structure, for which the estimation of the spectral measure is a means rather than an end. These two issues are addressed. For the first, a Monte Carlo method is developed based on simulation of extremes. It is compared with classical and new methods of the literature. For the second one, an original conditional dependence analysis is proposed, which enlightens various aspects of the dependence structure of the data. Examples using real data sets are given. In the last part, the semi-parametric model and the presented methods are extended to spatial extremes. It is made possible by considering the spectral distribution as the distribution of a random probability, an original viewpoint adopted throughout this thesis. Classical multivariate extremes are extended to extremes of random measures. The application is illustrated on rainfall data in China.

Davison, Anthony Christopher
Lausanne, EPFL
Other identifiers:
urn: urn:nbn:ch:bel-epfl-thesis3098-5

 Record created 2005-03-16, last modified 2018-01-27

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