Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China
 
research article

Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

Liu, Jiemei
•
Ye, Zhuyun
•
Christensen, Jesper H.
Show more
March 25, 2024
Science Of The Total Environment

Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESM_SSP2-4.5_CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 jig m- 3 (0.8 nmol min -1 m- 3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 % (67 %) lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen -Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 %) from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 %. Crucially, once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass -burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 % and 85 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638
Web of Science ID

WOS:001182171700001

Author(s)
Liu, Jiemei
Ye, Zhuyun
Christensen, Jesper H.
Dong, Shikui
Geels, Camilla
Brandt, Jorgen
Nenes, Athanasios  
Yuan, Yuan
Im, Ulas
Date Issued

2024-03-25

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Science Of The Total Environment
Volume

918

Article Number

170638

Subjects

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

•

Anthropogenic Emissions

•

Future Prediction

•

Oxidative Potential

•

Pm 2.5 Concentrations

•

Scenario Assumptions

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LAPI  
FunderGrant Number

National Natural Science Foundation of China

52041601

China Scholarship Council

202206120146

H2020-EU.1.1. - Excellent Science - European Research Council (ERC)

101095457

Show more
Available on Infoscience
April 17, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/207202
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés