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  4. Hybrid Simulator for Capturing Dynamics of Synthetic Populations
 
conference paper

Hybrid Simulator for Capturing Dynamics of Synthetic Populations

Kukic, Marija  
•
Bierlaire, Michel  
February 13, 2024
2023 IEEE 26th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
2023 IEEE 26th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)

This paper presents a novel hybrid framework for generating and updating a synthetic population. We call it hybrid because it combines model-based and data-driven approaches. Existing generators produce a snapshot of synthetic data that becomes outdated over time, requiring complete regeneration using the newest datasets for updates. By leveraging regularly collected data, we propose a method that provides up-to-date synthetic populations at any given moment without using complete re-generation. Our approach generates a baseline synthetic population once, using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, and projects it over time. In scenarios where disaggregated real data are unavailable, we project the synthetic sample by simulating life-changing events. When new disaggregated real data become available, we calibrate the projected sample using resampling to account for data collection biases and projection errors. We implement and test our approach on 2010, 2015, and 2021 Swiss mobility and transport micro-census data. To generate the baseline sample we use data from 2010 and project it to 2021. We compare the projections of our hybrid approach to existing methods, namely dynamic projection and resampling. The results demonstrate that the synthetic sample generated by the hybrid approach improves the fit to the real data compared to the dynamic projection, and improves heterogeneity compared to the resampling.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/ITSC57777.2023.10422198
Author(s)
Kukic, Marija  
Bierlaire, Michel  
Date Issued

2024-02-13

Publisher

IEEE

Published in
2023 IEEE 26th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
ISBN of the book

979-8-3503-9946-2

Total of pages

8

Subjects

Synthetic population

•

dynamics

•

simulation and modelling

•

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TRANSP-OR  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
2023 IEEE 26th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)

Bilbao, Spain

24-28 Sept. 2023

Available on Infoscience
March 7, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/205843
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