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  4. Customized Neural Network training to predict the highly imbalanced data of domestic hot water usage
 
conference paper

Customized Neural Network training to predict the highly imbalanced data of domestic hot water usage

Risoud, Caroline
•
Heidari, Amirreza
•
Khovalyg, Dolaana  
2022
CLIMA 2022 The 14th REHVA HVAC World Congress Proceedings
CLIMA 2022 The 14th REHVA HVAC World Congress

Despite space heating and cooling, the energy use for hot water production has not changed significantly over time and accounts for a big share in modern, well-insulated buildings. The main challenge of hot water generation lies in the highly stochastic nature of the domestic hot water (DHW) demand. Prediction of DHW demand can significantly help to a more efficient operational strategy in water heating systems. However, the time-series data of hot water demand is very sparse and imbalanced, including many zero demands, which makes it challenging to be predicted properly by Machine Learning methods. This study uses data recorded from a single-family building in South Africa and aims to understand how the customizations of a neural network for learning imbalanced datasets can affect the prediction of hot water demand. Four different customizations (Random over-sampling, Random under-sampling, Weight Relevance-based Combination Strategy, Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique for Regression) are compared with the baseline model to predict the hot water demand data. The performance of 9 different simulations is compared and the challenges are outlined. The over-sampling technique shows promising results for practical implementation by over-predicting high peaks by up to 20%, which will guarantee enough hot water production at peak usage. CLIMA 2022 conference, 2022: CLIMA 2022 The 14th REHVA HVAC World Congress

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.34641/clima.2022.141
Author(s)
Risoud, Caroline
Heidari, Amirreza
Khovalyg, Dolaana  
Date Issued

2022

Publisher

CLIMA 2022 conference

Published in
CLIMA 2022 The 14th REHVA HVAC World Congress Proceedings
Total of pages

6

Subjects

Hot water demand

•

Occupant behaviour

•

Machine Learning

•

Imbalanced data

•

Neural network

•

Time series

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ICE  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
CLIMA 2022 The 14th REHVA HVAC World Congress

Rotterdam, The Netherlands

May 22-25, 2022

Available on Infoscience
March 12, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/195675
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