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research article

Principal Portfolios

Kelly, Bryan
•
Malamud, Semyon  
•
Pedersen, Lasse Heje
December 27, 2022
Journal Of Finance

We propose a new asset pricing framework in which all securities' signals predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on securities' own-signal predictability, assuming equal strength across securities, our framework includes cross-predictability-leading to three main results. First, we derive the optimal strategy in closed form. It consists of eigenvectors of a "prediction matrix," which we call "principal portfolios." Second, we decompose the problem into alpha and beta, yielding optimal strategies with, respectively, zero and positive factor exposure. Third, we provide a new test of asset pricing models. Empirically, principal portfolios deliver significant out-of-sample alphas to standard factors in several data sets.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1111/jofi.13199
Web of Science ID

WOS:000904753000001

Author(s)
Kelly, Bryan
Malamud, Semyon  
Pedersen, Lasse Heje
Date Issued

2022-12-27

Publisher

WILEY

Published in
Journal Of Finance
Subjects

Business, Finance

•

Economics

•

Business & Economics

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SFI-SM  
Available on Infoscience
January 30, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/194464
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