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  4. Quantifying uncertain system outputs via the multi-level Monte Carlo method --- distribution and robustness measures
 
research article

Quantifying uncertain system outputs via the multi-level Monte Carlo method --- distribution and robustness measures

Ayoul-Guilmard, Quentin  
•
Ganesh, Sundar Subramaniam  
•
Krumscheid, Sebastian  
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2023
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential models by the MLMC method. We follow the approach of (reference), which recasts the estimation of the above quantities to the computation of suitable parametric expectations. In this work, we present novel computable error estimators for the estimation of such quantities, which are then used to optimally tune the MLMC hierarchy in a continuation type adaptive algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our adaptive continuation-MLMC in an array of numerical test cases.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2023045259
ArXiv ID

2208.07252

Author(s)
Ayoul-Guilmard, Quentin  
Ganesh, Sundar Subramaniam  
Krumscheid, Sebastian  
Nobile, Fabio  
Date Issued

2023

Published in
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification
Volume

13

Issue

5

Start page

61

End page

98

Subjects

Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods

•

Value-at-Risk

•

Conditional-Value-at-Risk

•

Uncertainty Quantification

•

Kernel Smoothing

•

Bootstrap Sampling

Note

Submitted. Available at doi.org/10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2023045259 and https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07252.

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REVIEWED

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RelationURL/DOI

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7025018
Available on Infoscience
August 23, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/190207
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