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research article

A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications

Pasricha, Puneet  
•
Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja
•
Natarajan, Selvaraju
February 26, 2022
Stochastics-An International Journal Of Probability And Stochastic Processes

The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and hence play a significant role in allocating capital for solvency purposes. In this article, we derive a closed-form expression for the default probability of a single firm and probability of the total number of defaults by time $t$ in a homogeneous portfolio. We use a contagion process to model the arrival of credit events causing the default and develop a framework that allows firms to have resistance against default unlike the standard intensity-based models. We assume the point process driving the credit events is composed of a systematic and an idiosyncratic component, whose intensities are independently specified by a mean-reverting affine jump-diffusion process with self-exciting jumps. The proposed framework is competent of capturing the feedback effect. We further demonstrate how the proposed framework can be used to price synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO). Finally, we present the sensitivity analysis to demonstrate the effect of different parameters governing the contagion effect on the spread of tranches and the expected loss of the CDO.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1080/17442508.2022.2041641
Web of Science ID

WOS:000762182900001

Author(s)
Pasricha, Puneet  
Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja
Natarajan, Selvaraju
Date Issued

2022-02-26

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

Published in
Stochastics-An International Journal Of Probability And Stochastic Processes
Subjects

Mathematics, Applied

•

Statistics & Probability

•

Mathematics

•

joint default risk

•

contagion process

•

affine jump-diffusion

•

abel equation of second kind

•

collateralized debt obligations

•

valuation

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SFI-GE  
Available on Infoscience
March 14, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/186346
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